Divorce not as common as urban legends tell us

Good piece, James. That 50% statistic always seemed a little sketchy to me, but having only one college statistics course -- barely remembered -- I had no real way of figuring it out. More than the numbers, though, the problem also seemed to me to be ascribing the same "failed marriage" label to all divorces. Is a marriage that lasts 25 years, then quietly splits up once the kids are out of the house a failed marriage? 25 years is a long time to do anything, and the Census Bureau's 2001 SIPP report shows the median length of a first marriage ending in divorce is just a little over 8 years. At the other end of the spectrum, is a Britney Spears 2-day marriage a failed marriage? That one didn't even try.

You mention how Nevada leads the nation in divorces and I wonder just how much the out-of-towner marriages and divorces skew the statistics for the state, and whether the number of people nationwide getting married and divorced in Nevada are enough to skew the data from other states. Any idea?

Typo on the very last word.

I've always heard 30%, which seemed reasonable unless you work in Hollywood, at which point 50% seems like an gross understatement.

Thanks for this. I am recently married and sometimes my wife and I joke about this heavy statistic that we are waiting for the bomb to drop any minute now. This is a good article and I appreciate your thoughts on this matter.

Here's an interesting Washington Post piece on a similar topic. It's entitled 'Marriage is for White People,' and it states that African Americans are increasingly becoming the least likely group to marry in America.

For Andy Hunter, Congrats on your recent marriage and as a survivor of a divorce and a total of 25 years of matrimony perhaps I can offer a small word of advice. Never think of your marriage as a possible statistic. What the percentages are out there of survival should never have a bearing on the relationship you have with the one you love. You two are unique! So is your marriage! Sure you'll go through some of the same problems we all go through, family, money, jobs, etc., but there are to many variables with each others personalities and how you mix those two with your marriage. So I say statistics be damned! Go out there and make the best of this that you can! And remember the #1 rule of marriage - WHEN SHE'S HAPPY, YOUR HAPPY!!

"...people can come up with statistics to prove anything. 14% of people know that." - Homer Simpson

Funny -- and true. (The first part of the sentence, anyway.)

I think that whether the truth is 30 or 50 percent it's evident to me that heterosexuals aren't successful enough at the institution of Marriage to legislate other people's ability to give it a whack.

The 50% statistic was explained to me in a sociology course I took in college -

You take 4 friends, they all marry. Three of them stay married until death. One of them divorces three times. That is three successful marriages and three failed ones - however those three failed ones all belong to one person.

I think many people believe that out of those four friends, two marriages will end in divorce, two successfully - but in actuality that may not be the case.

@Brian Ford - I agree! Why should a group of people who are far from successful in an institution try to legislate that institution for other groups?

There is this fantastic quote from a book called The Sparrow by Mary Doria Russell. Page 156. The bolding is my own emphasis.

"'We all make vows, Jimmy. And there is something very beautiful and touching and noble about wanting good impulses to be permanent and true forever,; she said. 'Most of us stand up and vow to love, honor and cherish someone. And we really truly mean it, at the time. But two or twelve or twenty years down the road, the lawyers are negotiating the property settlement.'
'You and George didn't go back on your promises.'
She laughed. 'Lemme tell ya something, sweetface. I have been married at least four times, to four different men.' She watched him chew that over for a moment before continuing, 'They've all been named George Edwards but, believe me, the man who is waiting for me down the hall is a whole different animal from the boy I married, back before there was dirt. Oh, there are continuities. he has always been fun and he has never been able to budget his time properly and - well, the rest is none of your business.'
'But people change,' he said quietly.
'Precisely. People change. Cultures change. Empires rise and fall. @!$%#. Geology changes! Every ten years or so, George and I have faced the fact that we have changed and we've had to decide if it makes sense to create a new marriage between these two new people.' She flopped back against her chair. 'Which is why vows are such a tricky business. Because nothing stays the same forever.'"

(this is cross-posted on the article about the institution of marriage)

Looking at /www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/divorce.htm"title="access CDC site">summary stats on the CDC site, one finds the latest numbers (2004) say:

• Number of marriages: 2,279,000
• Marriage rate: 7.8 per 1,000 total population
• Divorce rate: 3.7 per 1,000 population (46 reporting States and D.C.)

The marriage rate is just over twice the divorce rate.

It seems to me that anything other than polling at death would result in very inaccurate numbers. Seems that the only realy way to determine the real odds would be to tally base on obituaries.

I have eight aunts and uncles. Between them, there have been four divorces. One might figure a 50% divorce rate from that figure. However, one uncle accounted for three of the four divorces; that would put it at a more realistic 25% divorce rate. All it takes is some black sheep (like my uncle) to throw the figures off completely. I believe that this scenario plays itself out on a larger scale throughout our society. Tabulating the results from friends, friends parents, and coworkers over the years, I think that a 30-35% figure is far more accurate than the 50%.